兴业证券王涵 | 美国制造业复兴——从数据看在岸制造的挑战

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and slow progress of the U.S. manufacturing sector's efforts to return production to domestic soil, highlighting the disparity between announced investments and actual foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, as well as the ongoing decline in manufacturing employment despite claims of job creation [1][6][10]. Investment Overview - Announced greenfield FDI projects in the U.S. have increased by 96% from the average levels of 2017-2019, with a total of 1,049 projects announced since Trump took office, representing an 8.6% increase compared to the previous administration [9][10]. - However, actual FDI inflows have only grown by 18% during the same period, indicating a significant gap between announced and realized investments [10]. - Manufacturing building investment has surged by 110% since 2020, but this has not translated into a corresponding increase in manufacturing output [12]. Manufacturing Production - The U.S. manufacturing production index has only increased by 2% since the end of 2019, lagging behind other developed economies and emerging markets [17]. - The share of U.S. manufacturing value added in the global market has been on a continuous decline, dropping approximately 9 percentage points since 2000 [17]. Employment Trends - Despite claims of job creation from reshoring initiatives, actual manufacturing employment has been declining, with a projected decrease of 10,000 jobs in 2024 [22]. - The manufacturing workforce's share of total non-farm employment has decreased from 13% in 2000 to 8% in 2024, indicating a significant labor shortage [31]. Structural Challenges - The U.S. manufacturing sector faces a significant labor shortage, with an estimated gap of 8 million workers needed to return to 2000 employment levels [31]. - Labor costs in the U.S. are 10%-50% higher than in other countries, complicating the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing [32]. - Infrastructure issues, particularly in the electrical grid, pose additional challenges, as much of the existing infrastructure is outdated and requires significant investment to upgrade [35]. Sector-Specific Insights - The electronics industry has seen substantial investment growth, with actual building expenditures increasing by 740% since 2020, but this sector only accounts for 4% of total manufacturing output [25][28]. - The production index for the computer and electronics manufacturing sector has increased by 18%, but employment in this sector has declined, indicating that growth in this area may not significantly impact overall manufacturing recovery [28].