财报前瞻| Adobe估值逻辑受压制，配置性价比高，但投资者仍需耐心

Q2 Performance - Adobe reported Q2 revenue of $5.87 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11%, slightly exceeding market expectations. 96% of revenue came from subscriptions, while products and services contributed only 4% [1] - The Digital Media segment generated $4.35 billion in revenue, also up 11% year-over-year, accounting for 74% of total revenue. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached $18.09 billion, a 12.1% increase [1] - The Digital Experience segment contributed $1.46 billion, growing 10% year-over-year, with a focus on Adobe Experience Platform's real-time customer data platform capabilities [1] Profitability and Cash Flow - Net profit was $1.691 billion, a 7.5% increase year-over-year. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $5.06, up approximately 13%, surpassing analyst expectations [2] - Operating cash flow reached $2.19 billion, a 13% increase, setting a record for Q2 and supporting investments in AI [2] - Remaining performance obligations (RPO) stood at $19.69 billion, slightly below expectations, with current RPO (cRPO) accounting for 67%, indicating high revenue visibility [2] Competitive Landscape - Adobe's advantages include its comprehensive ecosystem and data privacy protection, but investor confidence in these advantages is waning [4] - In the image creation space, Adobe faces competition from Canva, Figma, and Midjourney, while in video generation, it competes with Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI [7][8] - Despite competition, Adobe maintains a strong position due to the high learning curve and switching costs associated with its professional software [10] Strategic Measures - Adobe implemented a price increase for Creative Cloud, with Pro prices rising by 16-18%, expected to contribute approximately $500 million [12] - The company integrated multiple models into its Firefly platform, allowing creators to switch between models easily, though its AI capabilities are not as strong as competitors [13] - Adobe repurchased approximately 8.6 million shares for $3.5 billion in Q2, with remaining buyback authorization of $10.9 billion, indicating strong capital return capabilities [14] Guidance - For Q3, Adobe expects revenue between $5.875 billion and $5.925 billion, with Digital Media segment revenue projected at $4.37 billion to $4.40 billion [16] - The full-year revenue target is adjusted to $23.5 billion to $23.6 billion, with Digital Media revenue expected at $17.45 billion to $17.5 billion [17] Market Reaction and Valuation - Following the Q2 results, Adobe's stock initially dropped over 5% but rebounded by more than 2% the next day, indicating a lukewarm market response [18] - Adobe's valuation is relatively low compared to competitors like Figma and Canva, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.52x, placing it in the 1.47% percentile [19]