今晚疲软非农报告或锁定降息，劳动力市场“冻结”令美联储承压

Group 1 - The upcoming employment report is expected to continue the trend of weak job growth in the U.S., potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [1][5][6] - Economists predict that non-farm payrolls may increase by only 75,000 in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of job growth below 100,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [1][4] - Recent data indicates a significant slowdown in hiring activity due to concerns over demand, rising costs, and economic uncertainty stemming from trade policies, leading to a "frozen" labor market [4][6] Group 2 - The private sector job growth in August is anticipated to be primarily driven by healthcare, leisure, and hospitality sectors, while education and health services are expected to see declines [4][5] - The ADP report shows that private sector employment increased by only 54,000 in August, reflecting weak hiring in leisure, hospitality, construction, and business services [5][6] - The labor market's weakness is further evidenced by a drop in job vacancies to a 10-month low and an increase in unemployment claims, indicating a challenging environment for job seekers [6][7] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to act as labor market conditions weaken, with Chairman Powell expressing openness to interest rate cuts [5][6] - Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, although the path forward remains uncertain due to conflicting economic indicators [6][7] - The labor market's performance is expected to be a key factor in future interest rate decisions, with potential for quicker shifts in monetary policy based on employment trends [7]