盘后暴跌15%！Lululemon下调全年业绩预期，二季度EPS超预期35/64

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon's Q2 earnings report shows a mixed performance with a significant downward revision of future revenue guidance, raising concerns about the company's growth prospects and brand positioning in a competitive market [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - Q2 earnings per share were $3.10, exceeding the expected $2.87, but revenue of $2.53 billion fell slightly short of the $2.54 billion forecast [5][6]. - Same-store sales growth was only 1%, significantly below the anticipated 3.7% [5][6]. Earnings Guidance Downgrade - The company has lowered its full-year revenue guidance from $11.15-$11.3 billion to $10.85-$11 billion, indicating a decline in expected annual growth from double digits to 2-4% [6][8]. - EPS guidance was also reduced from $14.58-$14.78 to $12.77-$12.97, diverging from Wall Street's expectation of $14.45 [6]. Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs are projected to reduce gross profit by $240 million in 2025 and operating profit by $240 million in 2026, with an additional $320 million impact in 2026 [7][16]. - Approximately 40% of products are manufactured in Vietnam, exposing the company to new tariff policies [17][18]. Regional Performance Disparities - North America, a core market, experienced a 4% decline in same-store sales, while China saw a robust 17% growth, and other international markets grew by 12% [8][9]. Brand Challenges - The brand's premium positioning is threatened by the rise of "alternative culture," with lower-priced competitors like Costco and Amazon offering similar products at significantly reduced prices [9][12]. - The company faces challenges in maintaining brand exclusivity as consumer preferences shift towards more affordable options [14][15]. Financial Health - Despite the challenges, Lululemon maintains a strong financial position with $1.33 billion in cash and a debt-to-equity ratio of 39.8% [20][22]. - The company generated $2.03 billion in operating cash flow and $1.18 billion in free cash flow, providing a buffer against economic downturns [23]. - Inventory has increased by 15% year-over-year, attributed to strategic stocking before tariff implementation, while profitability metrics remain strong with a return on equity (ROE) of 42.5% and a gross margin of 58.5% [24].