UBS(US:UBS) 天天基金网·2025-09-05 05:12Core Viewpoint - Investor confidence in Chinese assets is increasing, with a notable rise in overseas investors' willingness to allocate to non-USD assets, particularly Chinese assets, indicating a potential strong year for Chinese assets [2][3]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - As of June, foreign investors' holdings in A-shares exceeded 3 trillion RMB, accounting for 7.4% of the total free float market capitalization of A-shares [2]. - The number of overseas investors from the US and the Middle East attending the UBS A-share seminar has significantly increased compared to previous years [2]. - Recent data suggests that foreign capital is gradually increasing its allocation to Chinese assets, driven by expectations of potential Fed rate cuts and a stabilizing PPI in China [2][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Policies - The growth of ETFs and new trading rules have heightened the attention of trading-oriented foreign capital towards the Chinese market, while allocation-oriented foreign capital remains cautious, focusing on the sustainability of fundamental policies [4]. - Since September of last year, foreign investors' attitudes towards China have become more positive, supported by domestic policies providing a protective floor for A-shares and the emergence of new economic themes [4][5]. - The current global low-interest rate environment, combined with domestic low rates, has created a favorable liquidity environment for capital inflow into the Chinese stock market [4]. Group 3: A-share Market Dynamics - The narrative of building an investor-centric financial market in A-shares has been realized, with a slow bull market expected to continue [7]. - The current market rally is largely liquidity-driven, with indicators suggesting that individual investor participation is still low, indicating that the shift in household investment behavior is just beginning [7][8]. - Growth stocks are favored, with expectations that the second half of the year will favor growth styles for investors, although structural market dynamics may shift from small-cap growth to large-cap growth [8]. Group 4: Earnings and Valuation Outlook - A-share earnings are expected to improve this year, with a projected growth rate of around 6% for the full year, driven by a favorable base effect [10]. - Despite the recovery in A-share valuations, the decline in government bond yields is expected to push A-share valuations higher, as the market remains relatively attractive compared to historical averages [10]. - The technology sector is anticipated to continue its momentum, supported by policy backing and changing industry trends, with further room for valuation increases as fundamental performance improves [11].