基金经理请回答 | 对话田瑀：一个行业，会不会同时存在多家都有深厚护城河的公司？

Core Viewpoint - The fund's top ten holdings are concentrated in four industries: chips, aviation, chemicals, and liquor, with over 70% of the portfolio in these holdings, which is not considered overly concentrated compared to historical levels [3][4] Group 1: Industry Concentration and Analysis - The perception of concentration in only four industries is a misunderstanding, as the classification of certain stocks by market software may not accurately reflect their business relevance [3] - The chemical sector is broad, and the top holdings within this sector have low correlation in terms of revenue and profit drivers, indicating that the portfolio's concentration is not as significant as it appears [4] Group 2: Economic Cycle and Investment Strategy - The fund has historically not held "non-cyclical" stocks, as the investment strategy is based on a long-term optimistic view of the Chinese economy [5][6] - The need for strong macroeconomic analysis depends on the investment approach; the fund's strategy is based on bottom-up assessments of company value rather than macroeconomic cycles [6] Group 3: Correlation and Stock Selection - The fund aims to avoid business-level correlations rather than macroeconomic correlations, as most industries are inherently linked to macroeconomic cycles [7] - Statistical correlation is unavoidable, and the focus is on avoiding causal relationships that directly impact stock performance [8] Group 4: Competitive Landscape in Specific Industries - In the high-end liquor industry, it is rare for three companies to possess strong competitive advantages simultaneously, as competition is often based on brand differentiation rather than market share [10][12] - High-end liquor companies maintain their competitive edge by controlling supply and pricing, which is crucial for preserving brand value [12][27] Group 5: Current Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The current low ticket prices in the aviation sector are attributed to aggressive competition and a decline in consumer purchasing power, which is expected to be a cyclical issue rather than a long-term trend [20][19] - The outlook for the high-end liquor market remains cautious, with expectations of potential declines in sales during peak seasons due to reduced consumer spending [26]