张瑜：从物价到投资，从供给到需求——供给侧改革全复盘及对当下映射

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the supply-side reform period from 2015 to 2018, highlighting the impact on asset performance and PPI, and contrasts it with the current anti-involution policies, providing insights for future investment opportunities and risks [2]. Group 1: Asset Review During Supply-Side Reform - The introduction of supply-side reform in November 2015 marked a bottoming out of coal and steel prices, leading to a relative outperformance against the market [3]. - In the early stages of the policy (end of 2015 to mid-2016), there was significant volatility in related assets due to the clash between "strong expectations" and "weak realities" [3]. - The trend of rising coal and steel prices began around June 2016, following the breakdown of local capacity reduction targets and improvements in economic fundamentals [3][4]. - The sustainability of the market rally was primarily driven by demand, with profitability in the coal and steel sectors improving due to rising prices, which were largely supported by demand [4][31]. Group 2: PPI Review During Supply-Side Reform - From the introduction of supply-side reform to the PPI turning positive, it took 10 months, with coal, steel, and non-metallic building materials contributing 49% to the PPI recovery [5][53]. - The recovery of PPI was also supported by improvements in the global economy, with oil and non-ferrous metals contributing 36% to the PPI rise during the same period [5][53]. - After PPI turned positive, the breadth of price increases across industries significantly improved, with the proportion of industries experiencing price increases remaining high [5][54]. Group 3: Differences Between Current Anti-Involution and Supply-Side Reform - The macroeconomic context and policy objectives differ significantly between the current anti-involution measures and the supply-side reform, with the latter focusing on reducing ineffective supply and expanding effective supply [7]. - The current anti-involution policies are expected to have a more gradual impact on prices compared to the rapid effects seen during the supply-side reform [7]. - The methods of capacity governance differ, with supply-side reform relying more on administrative measures, while anti-involution emphasizes legal and market-based approaches [7]. Group 4: Future Insights on PPI and Anti-Involution Related Assets - PPI is expected to enter a recovery cycle starting in August, but the timing for it to turn positive may be longer than in 2016, likely extending beyond the first quarter of next year [8]. - The performance of anti-involution related assets will depend on overall macro demand improvement, with key indicators such as manufacturing sector ROE, capacity utilization, and actual inventory growth showing no significant improvement yet [10]. - Active equity funds have a relatively low allocation to key anti-involution sectors, indicating that the momentum from fund reallocation may be weaker than during the supply-side reform period [11].