年内最重要的非农就在今晚！黄金狂飙还是美元翻盘？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is crucial for assessing the labor market and will directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in September [5][7]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Expectations - Economists predict that the U.S. will add 75,000 non-farm jobs in August, with an unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.3%, marking the weakest performance since the pandemic began in 2020 [5][7]. - If the August job additions meet expectations, it will be the fourth consecutive month with job growth below 100,000 [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but strong employment data could alter this expectation [7]. - Morgan Stanley's chief economist suggests that if 225,000 jobs are added, it may alleviate concerns about the labor market, potentially leading to sustained higher interest rates [7]. Group 3: Revisions to Previous Data - A significant focus of the upcoming report will be whether previous non-farm payroll figures are revised downward, as July's data was unexpectedly weak and previous months were significantly adjusted [9]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered warn that the non-farm employment data may be overestimated, with potential downward revisions of 550,000 to 800,000 jobs [9]. Group 4: Current Labor Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of fatigue, with hiring stagnation and low employee turnover, indicating a near standstill [11]. - Job growth is increasingly reliant on a few sectors, such as healthcare and leisure, but even these areas are experiencing a slowdown in job additions [11]. Group 5: Market Reactions to Non-Farm Data - Gold prices have surged due to rising rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks, making the market particularly sensitive to the upcoming non-farm data [13]. - A stronger-than-expected non-farm report could support the dollar, while a weaker report may reinforce expectations for a rate cut, potentially leading to a 50 basis point reduction [13].