OpenAI开启千亿豪赌！未来四年现金消耗激增至1150亿美元，2030年收入剑指2000亿美元

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI is entering a capital-intensive phase, with projected cash burn reaching $115 billion by 2029, significantly higher than previous estimates, indicating it may be the most capital-intensive startup in history [3][4][5]. Group 1: Cost Projections - OpenAI anticipates cash consumption exceeding $8 billion this year, up by $1.5 billion from earlier forecasts, and expects this to double to over $17 billion next year, an increase of $10 billion [5]. - By 2027 and 2028, projected cash burn will reach approximately $35 billion and $45 billion, respectively, with the 2028 forecast being more than four times the previous estimate of $11 billion [6]. Group 2: Revenue Outlook - Despite rising costs, OpenAI's revenue forecast for this year is set at $13 billion, a 3.5-fold increase from last year, with the 2030 revenue target raised to around $200 billion [9]. - The optimistic revenue outlook is primarily driven by ChatGPT, with expectations of significant income from both paid subscriptions and free user monetization strategies [9][11]. Group 3: Key Cost Drivers - Major areas of cash expenditure include: 1. Infrastructure development, with nearly $100 billion planned for building proprietary servers to reduce reliance on cloud providers [10]. 2. AI model training costs, projected to exceed $9 billion this year and $19 billion next year, with ongoing increases expected [10]. 3. AI model inference costs, with anticipated spending over $150 billion from 2025 to 2030 [10]. 4. Talent acquisition costs, with an estimated additional $20 billion in stock compensation by 2030 to attract and retain key personnel [10]. Group 4: Investment and Valuation - OpenAI's valuation has surged to $500 billion, nearly double from six months ago, as major investment firms continue to buy shares, viewing the company as a bellwether for AI technology commercialization [17][18]. - The potential for an IPO is seen as a necessary step to support its extensive data center plans, allowing for easier capital raising through debt [19].