“新美联储通讯社”：非农报告几乎确定9月降息，但此后的降息争论更复杂

Core Viewpoint - The August employment report indicates a significant slowdown in job growth since the beginning of the year, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in the upcoming meeting, complicating future discussions on rate cuts [1][3]. Employment Data Summary - In August, U.S. employers added 22,000 jobs, with the private sector contributing 38,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [5]. - The job growth data for June was revised downwards, showing a decrease of 13,000 jobs, while July's data was revised upwards from 73,000 to 79,000, resulting in a net decrease of 21,000 jobs compared to previous reports [5]. - Over the past three months, the private sector averaged 29,000 new jobs per month, marking the lowest increase since the pandemic began, with the six-month average slowing to 67,000 [5]. Labor Market Insights - The June job growth marked a negative change, ending a streak of 53 consecutive months of non-farm job growth, which is the second-longest on record, significantly shorter than the 113-month record that ended with the COVID-19 pandemic [8]. - The number of permanent job losses slightly increased in August, but the rate has remained stable throughout the year, at just above 1.1% of the labor force [9]. Wage Growth and Economic Indicators - The comprehensive weekly wage index, a good monthly indicator of nominal income growth, rose by 4.4% year-over-year in August, marking a new low for this cycle. The three-month annualized growth rate was revised down from 3.2% to 2.4% [12]. - The unemployment rate in August, calculated without rounding, increased from 4.248% in July to 4.324%, with Federal Reserve officials previously projecting a rise to 4.5% in the fourth quarter [14].