本轮牛市走到哪个阶段了？

Group 1 - The article discusses the typical stages of a bull market, which include valuation repair, performance-driven improvement, and emotional bubble phases. The transition to the emotional bubble phase depends on whether performance expectations can be sustained [3][4]. - The current market is experiencing a rapid rise followed by adjustments, indicating it is in the latter part of the performance improvement phase, with an estimated 3% growth in overall A-share earnings for the first half of the year and a projected 6% growth for the entire year [5][6]. - The article compares the current market conditions to the bull market from 2019 to 2021, noting similarities in the K-line charts and the rapid nature of both market phases [8][9]. Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that during the previous bull market, the index experienced a prolonged period of oscillation after the rapid rise, which eventually led to a bear market [11][12]. - The article emphasizes that the future trajectory of the current market will depend on the realization of performance expectations, with forecasts indicating double-digit growth in net profit for the index from 2025 to 2027 [14][15]. - The predicted growth rate for 2025 is 16.05%, which is significantly higher than the 6% growth forecasted by UBS, raising questions about the reliability of these projections and their impact on market performance [16].