这轮行情能否延续？关键看这4个信号！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the A-share market, particularly after the index reached 3800 points, indicating uncertainty in market trends and the need for investors to assess various indicators to determine the sustainability of the bull market [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The first indicator to assess is the market leverage ratio, specifically the ratio of margin financing to market capitalization, which currently stands at approximately 6.8%, up from 6.5% at the end of July but still below the 7%-9.8% range seen during the 2015 bull market [12][13]. - The second indicator is the proportion of trading volume from margin financing, which is currently about 12%. Historical data suggests that if this ratio exceeds 12%-13%, regulatory measures may be implemented to cool the market [17][18]. - The third indicator is market trading volume, with a sustained volume above 2 trillion yuan typically supporting a bull market. Recently, the A-share market has seen trading volumes exceed this threshold for five consecutive days [20][21]. - The fourth indicator is the scale of newly issued public funds. Currently, the average weekly fundraising for public funds is 11 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the peak levels seen in previous bull markets, indicating that retail investor enthusiasm is not yet at a high level [24][26]. Group 2: New Investor Activity - The number of new brokerage accounts opened is a critical metric, as new retail investors often signal the later stages of a bull market. Recent data shows that 1.96 million new accounts were opened in July, which is significantly lower than previous peaks [33][34]. - The current level of new account openings suggests that the bull market is still in its early stages, with a lack of significant inflow from retail investors into the stock market [35][36]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Based on the four indicators discussed, the A-share market is still in the initial phase of the bull market, with no signs of entering the acceleration phase yet [37]. - Investors are advised to hold onto their stocks while being cautious about entering the market at current levels, especially given the potential for significant downturns [39][42].