招商银行研究·2025-09-06 10:52Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the U.S. non-farm employment data for August fell short of market expectations, indicating a cooling labor market, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider restarting interest rate cuts [1][6]. Group 1: Macro Analysis - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, breaking the previous range of 4.0-4.2% that had persisted for a year, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, leading to a three-month moving average of 29,000 [6][7]. - The cooling in employment is attributed to a combination of supply and demand factors, with immigration stabilizing and mature workers returning to the labor market, halting the decline in labor supply [7][11]. - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.3%, driven by a recovery in the participation of mature workers, while the immigrant labor population rose slightly by 50,000 to 30.81 million [7][11]. - Key industries are experiencing a reduction in labor shortages, with the job vacancy rate falling to 4.3%, particularly in the healthcare sector, which saw a decrease of 0.7 percentage points to 5.1% [11]. - High interest rates and tariff impacts are contributing to a slowdown in labor demand, with sensitive sectors like manufacturing and wholesale trade seeing job losses [13]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the sustainability of the current supply and demand factors is weak, but with the potential for monetary policy easing, U.S. employment may regain resilience [3][13]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts, with a projected endpoint around 3.5% in the first quarter of next year, reflecting a more optimistic view on economic prospects compared to market sentiment [3][16]. - The market has already priced in a dovish outlook, leading to a shift in strategies for U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar, with recommendations to adopt a neutral stance while waiting for better trading opportunities [4][19].