宁德时代退出芬兰Valmet：电动化放缓与自主战略的双重博弈

Core Viewpoint - CATL has recently sold its 20.6% stake in Valmet Automotive, marking the end of its 8-year overseas investment, which reflects a strategic shift in its European ambitions and the completion of Valmet's "nationalization" [3][9]. Group 1: Valmet Automotive's Transition - Valmet has accelerated its battery system (EVS) business, with its battery module production line in Salo starting operations in 2019, achieving a production capacity of 800,000 units in 2023 and surpassing 2 million units cumulatively [4][5]. - In 2023, Valmet's EVS business revenue exceeded €1 billion for the first time, despite a 21.8% year-on-year decline in its traditional automotive contract manufacturing (VCM) revenue due to the termination of the Mercedes GLC production line in June 2022 [5][6]. Group 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities - The demand for fuel vehicles in Europe is declining, and while electric vehicle contract manufacturing has higher profit margins, Valmet faces insufficient new orders due to slower electrification progress and an overall downturn in the European automotive market [6]. - In 2024, European BEV sales are projected to be 1.993 million units, a 1.3% year-on-year decrease, with Finland's BEV sales dropping by 30.3% [6]. - Finland's electric vehicle average price remains higher than traditional fuel vehicles, and the country offers less subsidy and tax incentives compared to neighboring countries like Sweden and Denmark, impacting growth [6]. Group 3: Finland's Strategic Positioning - Finland is among the first countries to release a national battery strategy, focusing on building a complete value chain from raw materials to battery manufacturing and recycling [7]. - The extreme environment in Finland has driven battery technology innovation, and the high penetration of renewable energy is promoting large-scale energy storage [8]. - Valmet plans to spin off its battery business into a separate subsidiary, IONCOR, which will further enhance its position as a leading independent battery system supplier in Europe [8]. Group 4: Government Involvement and Future Prospects - The nationalization of Valmet reflects the Finnish government's intention to gain greater influence in the electrification sector, with the government already holding a 70% stake in IONCOR and committing an additional €20 million investment [9]. - Collaborative projects, such as the Keliber lithium project, aim to establish local production of battery-grade lithium hydroxide, providing essential materials for electric vehicle battery production [10]. Group 5: Implications for Chinese Enterprises - The strategic adjustments in Finland suggest that Chinese companies need to adopt more flexible strategies to enter the European market, including joint ventures and technology licensing to meet EU localization requirements [11][12]. - Long-term strategies should involve integrating compliance requirements into the entire lifecycle of product design, production, and recycling, as well as establishing R&D centers and brand ecosystems [12].