“新美联储通讯社”：非农报告几乎确定9月降息，但此后的降息争论更复杂

Core Viewpoint - The August employment report indicates a significant slowdown in job growth since the beginning of the year, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in the upcoming meeting, complicating future discussions on rate cuts [1][3]. Employment Data Summary - In August, U.S. employers added 22,000 jobs, with the private sector contributing 38,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [5]. - The June employment data was revised downwards, showing a decrease of 13,000 jobs, while July's data was revised upwards from 73,000 to 79,000 jobs. The net job loss in the latest report was 21,000 [6]. - Over the past three months, the average monthly job growth in the private sector was 29,000, marking the lowest increase since the pandemic began. The average job growth over the past six months has slowed to 67,000 [6]. Labor Market Insights - The June job growth marked the end of a 53-month streak of monthly non-farm employment growth, the second-longest on record, significantly shorter than the 113-month streak that ended with the COVID-19 pandemic [9]. - The number of permanent job losses slightly increased in August, but the rate has remained stable this year, at just above 1.1% of the labor force [10]. Wage Growth Analysis - The comprehensive weekly wage index, a good monthly indicator of nominal income growth, rose by 4.4% year-over-year in August, marking a new low for this cycle. The three-month annualized growth rate was revised down from 4.6% to 2.4% [13]. Unemployment Rate Projections - The unemployment rate in August, calculated without rounding, increased from 4.248% in July to 4.324%. Federal Reserve officials previously projected that the unemployment rate would rise to 4.5% in the fourth quarter [15].