美国就业全面降温——全球经济观察第11期【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Global Asset Price Performance - The US dollar assets have strengthened, with mixed performance in global stock markets; US stocks rose while European and Japanese markets generally declined. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices increased by 0.6%, 0.2%, and 1.2% respectively [2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield continued to decline by 6 basis points, likely due to weak employment data reinforcing rate cut expectations [2] - Oil prices fell, with WTI and Brent crude down by 1% and 0.6% respectively, while London gold prices increased by 3% [2] - The US dollar index rose by 0.5% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Employment data has catalyzed rate cut expectations; Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated the call for a rate cut in the next meeting. Following the August non-farm payroll data, the probability of a 50 basis point cut in September rose to 12%, with an expected average of 2.8 cuts by year-end [4] - In Japan, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare announced a 6.3% increase in the minimum wage for the fiscal year, supporting the "wage-price loop" and providing backing for continued rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4] US Economic Dynamics - Employment data showed weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since the end of 2021. The increase was attributed to more unemployed individuals re-entering the job market, while the U6 unemployment rate also rose by 0.2 percentage points [8] - The ADP reported that new job additions in August fell to 54,000, and initial jobless claims reached a six-month high, indicating a cooling labor market and reinforcing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8] - Tariffs are beginning to impact consumer spending, with the Fed's Beige Book indicating stagnant economic activity across most regions, and many households experiencing wage growth that has not kept pace with rising prices [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - In Europe, long-term bond yields have significantly increased, with the Eurozone CPI growth rate at 2.1% and the unemployment rate steady at 6.2%. Concerns over government debt have risen due to increased fiscal spending in response to geopolitical and economic recovery challenges [19] - In the UK, the 30-year government bond yield surpassed 5.7%, the highest since 1998, while France's 30-year bond yield exceeded 4.5% [19] - Japan's manufacturing sector remains under pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, indicating contraction, despite nominal wage growth reaching 4.1% in July [19]