高盛：应纳入商品“分散化”投资组合，“最坚定推荐”黄金

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs highlights the rising risk of institutional credibility in the U.S. and increased concentration in commodity supply, creating "tail risks" that investors should consider when diversifying their portfolios with commodities, particularly gold, which is recommended as the "highest-conviction long" investment [1][3]. Commodity Diversification Value - Since spring, the market has shifted from tariff uncertainty to tariff realities, stabilizing economic activity indicators and reducing the probability of a U.S. recession. Despite this, Goldman Sachs believes that the appeal of commodities as a diversification tool has increased due to slowing employment growth and high economic downturn risks [4]. Commodity Index Outlook - Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario indicates that the commodity index is expected to yield only moderate positive returns over the next 12 months [5]. Gold and Other Commodities Outlook - The firm maintains a bullish outlook on gold (due to strong central bank purchases), copper (driven by electricity, infrastructure, and defense demand), and U.S. natural gas (liquefied natural gas exports), while expecting current oversupply in the oil market to worsen [6]. Federal Reserve Independence Risk - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the risk of diminished Federal Reserve independence, which could lead to rising inflation, falling long-term bond prices, declining stock prices, and a weakened dollar reserve currency status. In contrast, gold remains a reliable store of value not dependent on institutional trust [7]. Commodity Supply Concentration Risks - Increased concentration in commodity supply poses significant risks, with key commodities being sourced from geopolitically sensitive regions. This situation has led to frequent supply disruptions, heightened price volatility, and rising imported inflation [8]. Structural "3D Trends" Supporting Long-term Commodity Bull Market - Three structural trends (De-risking energy, Defense spending, Dollar diversification) are systematically tightening commodity market supply and demand [10]. 1. De-risking Energy - Global energy security policies are driving a surge in grid investments, significantly increasing copper demand. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, grid-related investments will contribute to 60% of global copper demand growth, with copper prices expected to reach $10,750 per ton by 2027 [11]. 2. Increased Defense Spending - Military spending in Europe is projected to rise from 1.9% of GDP in 2024 to 2.7% in 2027, which will boost demand for industrial metals like copper, nickel, and steel, providing substantial support for metal prices [12]. 3. Central Bank "De-dollarization" - Since the freezing of Russian dollar assets in 2022, global central bank gold purchases have surged fivefold, driving a 94% increase in gold prices since then. Emerging Asian countries are expected to continue significant gold purchases for several years, creating a long-term institutional demand for gold [13].