热点思考 | 全面“遇冷”——美国8月非农数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for August significantly underperformed expectations, with only 22,000 jobs added compared to the forecast of 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising to a new high of 4.3% [1][6][8] - The employment situation across most sectors has deteriorated, particularly in cyclical industries, which saw a reduction of 48,000 jobs, a decline that expanded by 26,000 from the previous month [1][6][10] - The private sector added only 38,000 jobs in August, which is also below expectations, while the government sector saw a decrease of 16,000 jobs [1][6][10] Group 2 - The labor market is currently characterized by a fragile balance of weak supply and demand, with the unemployment rate expected to continue rising slightly [2][14][23] - The credibility of the August non-farm data is questioned due to a low response rate of 56.7%, the lowest in recent years, and historical trends suggest that these figures may be revised upwards in subsequent months [2][14][20] - Leading indicators, such as small business hiring plans and unemployment claims, suggest that the labor market still possesses some resilience, indicating that a significant deterioration is not imminent [2][14][23] Group 3 - Following the release of the non-farm data, market sentiment shifted from "rate cut trading" to "recession trading," with expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September rising to 11% [3][6][14] - The market anticipates two rate cuts by the end of the year, although the likelihood of three cuts hinges on the unemployment rate reaching 4.6% or higher, which remains a low probability scenario [3][6][14] - The current equilibrium level of job additions in the U.S. labor market is projected to fall to between 30,000 and 80,000 jobs per month, with the unemployment rate likely to rise if job additions remain at the low level of 22,000 [2][23][32]