非农寒烟起，降息秋风急（国金宏观钟天）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges in the U.S. labor market, highlighting a potential rise in unemployment rates and the difficulties faced by the private sector in job recovery, particularly in light of recent economic data and policy implications [2][6][15]. Employment Trends - The initial response rate for the August non-farm survey showed a significant rebound, but the trend of employment deterioration has not ceased, with private sector job additions contracting for four consecutive months [4][6]. - The total non-farm job additions from May to August amounted to only 107,000, which is below the average monthly growth of 127,000 in the first four months of 2025 [4][6]. - The unemployment rate increased from 4.248% to 4.324%, primarily due to a slight recovery in labor force participation [6][11]. Economic Sensitivity - The U6 unemployment rate and the unemployment rate for African Americans have both seen significant increases, indicating underlying vulnerabilities in the labor market [11][16]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly sensitive to tariffs, has experienced a decline in working hours since peaking in May and June, suggesting further potential job losses [9][11]. Federal Reserve Implications - The Federal Reserve's recent labor data has undergone significant revisions, with a cumulative downward adjustment of 279,000 in non-farm job additions and a 0.21% increase in the unemployment rate since the July FOMC meeting [6][15]. - There is speculation about whether the Fed may need to adjust its interest rate strategy in response to the deteriorating labor market conditions, especially after Powell's dovish stance [6][15]. Structural Issues - The article emphasizes that even if the U.S. economy avoids recession, young individuals and undocumented immigrants are already experiencing economic hardships, highlighting a structural issue in the labor market [16][15]. - The combination of declining full-time employment, rising part-time employment, and increasing permanent unemployment poses a greater risk for future unemployment rate increases [7][11].