牛市里，更要追求“模糊的正确”

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of embracing "fuzzy correctness" over "precise errors" in investment strategies, particularly in the context of a bull market, where maintaining a long-term perspective and avoiding over-trading can lead to better outcomes [4][19]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - "Fuzzy correctness" is defined as a rational strategy based on common sense and probability, focusing on long-term value rather than precise timing or predictions [8][19]. - Investors should prioritize understanding the fundamental value of companies and avoid chasing speculative stocks, instead focusing on businesses with strong long-term prospects and competitive advantages [8][9]. - The article argues that the market is inherently uncertain, and attempts to eliminate this uncertainty through precise methods often lead to cognitive errors [4][14]. Group 2: Market Behavior - Short-term stock price fluctuations are primarily driven by investor emotions, capital flows, and noise, making them unpredictable [5][14]. - Historical data shows that high-frequency trading often results in poor long-term performance, as these strategies incur high transaction costs and fail to outperform simple index investments [6][15]. - The article highlights that during bull markets, frequent trading in an attempt to capture every price movement can lead to missing out on significant upward trends [10][20]. Group 3: Decision-Making Strategies - Investors should adopt a "relative high and low" approach to buying and selling, rather than trying to time the market perfectly [9][10]. - Maintaining a diversified portfolio and controlling position sizes can mitigate risks associated with individual stock predictions [11][19]. - The article suggests that patience and a long-term view are more critical than short-term precision, as time can correct initial investment errors [17][18]. Group 4: Long-Term Perspective - The philosophy of "fuzzy correctness" aligns with a long-term investment approach, where the focus is on holding quality assets over time to benefit from compounding returns [17][18]. - The article warns that "precise errors" can amplify risks and lead to significant losses, particularly through over-trading and emotional decision-making [15][18]. - Ultimately, successful investing is about consistently making decisions that are "largely correct" rather than striving for perfect predictions [19][20].