雪球·2025-09-07 04:50Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of small-cap stocks and bank stocks in the A-share market, emphasizing the short-term gains in micro-cap and concept stocks while bank stocks have seen declines, highlighting a disconnect between market sentiment and fundamentals [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Since July 2025, the ChiNext and STAR Market indices have risen approximately 30% in just two months, with some stocks increasing by 50-100%, while bank stocks have averaged a decline of about 10% [2]. - The article notes a peculiar trend where stocks with worsening fundamentals, such as liquor stocks, have rebounded significantly despite poor earnings, indicating a market behavior that often disregards fundamentals [2]. Investment Behavior - New investors are often swayed by short-term market movements, leading to a preference for high-volatility stocks that promise quick returns, which can result in losses when the market corrects [4][5]. - The article suggests that long-term investment in bank stocks requires a strong understanding and discipline, as many investors struggle to hold onto these stocks during downturns [3][4]. Valuation and Future Outlook - Bank stocks, particularly Agricultural Bank and China Merchants Bank, are highlighted as potential benchmarks for valuation, with Agricultural Bank's stock price nearing its net asset value, indicating a possible upward trend in valuation [6][10]. - The article identifies several city commercial banks, such as Chengdu Bank and Hangzhou Bank, as having strong fundamentals and potential for future growth, with current price-to-book ratios indicating they are undervalued [8][9]. Long-term Investment Strategy - The article advocates for a long-term investment strategy focused on banks with solid fundamentals, low valuations, and good growth potential, suggesting that investors should aim for annualized returns of 12-15% [9][10]. - It emphasizes the importance of selecting quality stocks based on fundamental analysis rather than short-term price movements, as this approach can lead to sustainable profits in the long run [10].