【广发宏观团队】今年经济节奏为何季末高、季初低

Economic Trends - The economic rhythm this year shows a pattern of high performance at the end of the quarter and low performance at the beginning, with industrial added value in March and June at 7.7% and 6.8% respectively, while April and July saw a decline to 6.1% and 5.7% [1][2] - The export delivery rhythm is influenced by trade uncertainties, with significant increases in export delivery values in March and June, reflecting companies' responses to the trade environment [2][3] - Policy impacts are also significant, with new monetary policies and support measures peaking in March and June, leading to a potential recovery in economic activity in September and October [3] Market Performance - In the first week of September, multiple asset classes experienced fluctuations, with global stock markets showing mixed results, and the G7 bond yields initially rising before declining [4][5] - The A-share market saw a decline in breadth, with high-growth narratives facing challenges, while sectors like electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals led the gains [9][10] Commodity Market - Gold prices surged due to rising risk aversion and declining real interest rates, with London gold spot prices increasing by 4.82% to $3,594 per ounce [6][7] - Copper prices in the domestic market outperformed international prices, while oil prices fell due to oversupply expectations [7][8] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, below expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.32% [13][14] - The ISM services index for August reached 52.0, indicating resilience in the services sector despite employment pressures [16][17] Inflation and Price Trends - September's CPI and PPI are expected to show improvements, with CPI projected at 0.15% and PPI at -2.55%, indicating a shift towards a low base advantage [21][22] - The nominal GDP is estimated to rise to around 3.8%, with production indicators showing signs of seasonal recovery [18][19] Policy Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a new action plan for the electronic information manufacturing industry, aiming for an average growth rate of 7% in added value from 2025 to 2026 [27][28] - The government is also focusing on enhancing sports consumption and the overall sports industry, with a target to exceed 7 trillion yuan in scale by 2030 [32]