人民币升值的短期催化与长期重估｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the RMB/USD exchange rate, highlighting the factors contributing to the RMB's appreciation and the underlying economic conditions that support this trend [2][4][14]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB experienced a series of fluctuations in 2023, initially appreciating in a weak dollar environment, then depreciating due to tariff concerns, before regaining strength [2]. - The RMB's middle price, onshore price, and offshore price have all shown a tendency to converge towards the 7.0 level, indicating a unified market response [2][4]. Group 2: Core Pillars of RMB Valuation - The three core pillars influencing RMB valuation are the China-US interest rate differential, policy risk premium, and purchasing power parity (PPP) [4]. - The narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential has been a fundamental basis for the RMB's appreciation over the past three months, with the nominal interest rate spread decreasing by nearly 50 basis points [4][5]. - The actual interest rate differential has also narrowed, with China's low inflation levels contrasting with rising inflation in the US, enhancing the relative attractiveness of Chinese assets [5][7]. Group 3: Policy Risk and Market Sentiment - The policy risk premium for Chinese assets is decreasing, while it is rising for US assets, driven by concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve [7]. - The stability of RMB assets is becoming a rare value in a globally turbulent macroeconomic environment, as China's reforms and policy stability are expected to further reduce the sovereign risk premium [7][11]. Group 4: Purchasing Power Parity - The RMB is currently undervalued against the USD based on purchasing power parity, with the IMF indicating that 1 USD has the purchasing power equivalent to 3.4 RMB [9]. - Long-term undervaluation is attributed to capital account restrictions and international investor concerns regarding China's economic transition [11]. Group 5: Catalysts for RMB Appreciation - The recent strong performance of the RMB is attributed to both internal and external factors, including the central bank's strong midpoint guidance and geopolitical considerations [14][15]. - The influx of foreign capital into the A-share market, driven by a bullish sentiment, has created additional demand for RMB, contributing to its appreciation [19]. - Companies are accelerating their currency conversion from USD to RMB, as the cost of holding USD increases amid anticipated US interest rate cuts [22]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The weak dollar environment is expected to continue supporting RMB appreciation, although challenges such as declining export expectations and the need for domestic demand recovery remain [25].