高盛市场调研：进入9月，美股多头继续押AI，空头担心增长和集中度，所有人都看多黄金

Core Viewpoint - The global institutional investors' market sentiment is showing a clear split, with a strong consensus emerging on the bullish stance towards gold, regardless of differing views on AI-driven tech stocks and economic growth concerns [1][5]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - A survey of 804 institutional investors indicates a division between bullish and bearish camps, with the bullish camp optimistic about the performance of U.S. stocks, particularly the "Magnificent 7" tech giants, believing the AI narrative is far from over [1][2]. - Over half of the respondents plan to maintain or increase their long positions in the "Magnificent 7," although there is a slight decline in new capital inflows into this trade, suggesting a change in sentiment [2]. - The bearish camp is primarily concerned about the potential for a more significant economic slowdown in the U.S. than expected and the concentration risk posed by large tech stocks dominating the market [3]. Group 2: Gold Investment - Gold has emerged as the most uncontroversial investment choice, with a ratio of nearly 8 to 1 in favor of bullish investors compared to bearish ones, marking a record high in the Goldman Sachs survey [5]. - Both bulls anticipating a Federal Reserve rate cut and bears seeking safe-haven assets view gold as an ideal investment, supported by demand from central banks and potential private investors [5]. Group 3: China Market Interest - Investor interest in the Chinese market is on the rise, with 62% of respondents planning to maintain or increase their positions in Chinese stocks, reflecting a strong rebound in the market during the summer [6][7]. - When asked which market would perform better between U.S. stocks (S&P 500) and Chinese stocks (MSCI China), opinions were nearly evenly split, indicating a growing focus on the Chinese market [7]. Group 4: Dollar Sentiment - The sentiment towards the U.S. dollar has shifted, with a consensus emerging to short the dollar after a brief rebound last month, although there is no clear agreement among investors on the key factors driving the dollar's performance for the remainder of the year [8].