国泰海通｜有色金属：降息延长中期趋势，“衰退”隐忧藏机会

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the unexpected decline in U.S. employment data, leading to increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which may result in marginal liquidity easing [1][2] - The U.S. August non-farm payrolls unexpectedly dropped to 22,000 (previous value 73,000, forecast 75,000), with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, indicating increased risks in the labor market [2] - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and inflation, suggesting that gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations [1][2] Group 2 - In the industrial metals sector, there is an anticipation of demand recovery during the peak season, supported by macroeconomic policies and improved processing rates in downstream industries [1][2] - The domestic manufacturing PMI index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4% in August, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2] - The supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals are expected to improve marginally due to seasonal factors and maintenance disruptions, providing price support [2]