国泰海通 · 晨报0908｜宏观、海外策略、非银

Macro Analysis - The August non-farm payroll data in the U.S. showed a significant miss with only 22,000 jobs added, falling short of market expectations. Additionally, the combined job additions for June and July were revised down by 21,000, marking the first negative job growth since December 2020 [3][4] - The U.S. labor market is characterized by a fragile balance, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a stable average weekly hours worked. However, the proportion of long-term unemployed individuals is rising, indicating a challenging job market for those who lose their jobs [3][4] - Historical seasonal trends suggest that August non-farm payrolls are typically weak but may be revised upward in subsequent months. Current unemployment claims data has not shown significant deterioration, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could support the labor market [3][4] Overseas Strategy - The ongoing competition in the food delivery sector has begun to impact the earnings of major Hong Kong-listed internet companies, with a reported cumulative net profit growth of 4.1% for H1 2025 compared to 10.0% for H1 2024. The Hang Seng Technology Index saw a growth rate of 21.6% for H1 2025, down from 61.5% in the previous year [10][11] - Despite the challenges faced by the retail sector, other segments such as technology hardware, materials, and pharmaceuticals have shown strong performance in their mid-year reports. The overall earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks have been adjusted downward, particularly in the consumer discretionary sector, while materials and technology sectors have seen upward revisions [10][11] - The second half of 2025 may present a turning point for Hong Kong stocks, with the potential for improved earnings expectations as major internet companies increase investments in AI and as domestic policies support the market. The narrative may shift from the food delivery competition to AI empowerment, with foreign capital potentially returning due to interest rate cuts [11][12] Non-Bank Financials - The recent draft regulations on fund sales fees propose reductions across four categories, including lower subscription fees and the elimination of service fees for holdings over one year. The new maximum subscription fees are set at 0.8% for equity funds, 0.5% for mixed funds, and 0.3% for bond funds, compared to current averages of 1.22%, 1.38%, and 0.58% respectively [17][18] - The new regulations are expected to encourage longer holding periods for investors and promote the development of buy-side advisory services. The impact on major fund distribution platforms is anticipated to be limited, as the overall revenue from fund sales is a small portion of their total income [18][19]