国泰海通｜海外经济政策：确定的降息，不确定的节奏

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole meeting indicated a dovish shift from Powell, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September due to ongoing economic slowdown, although the pace and extent of cuts remain uncertain due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [1]. Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing marginal slowdown, with July durable goods orders showing a significant year-on-year decline and negative month-on-month growth. The Markit manufacturing PMI rose in August, but the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell. Additionally, refinery utilization rates slightly decreased, and steel production continued to decline year-on-year [3]. - In Europe, economic and inflation indicators are stabilizing, with the Eurozone GDP showing a slowdown in Q2 2025. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone and EU decreased in July, while the CPI in August showed a slight year-on-year increase, with core CPI remaining stable [3]. Policy Insights - In the U.S., weak non-farm payroll data reinforces expectations for interest rate cuts, while Trump's narrowing of the Fed chair candidate list raises concerns about the Fed's independence. In Europe, the ECB may pause rate cuts in the short term, and the euro could have appreciation potential despite political factors. The Bank of Japan maintains its rate hike path but warns of tariff risks, with the next rate cut expected in late 2025 or early 2026 [3].