机构研究周报：应全面看好顺周期风格，黄金或开启上行趋势

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a macroeconomic cycle shift, with expectations for PPI to turn positive by 2026, indicating a favorable environment for cyclical investments and a bullish outlook on gold prices [1][11]. Group 1: Employment Data and Monetary Policy - Weak employment data in the U.S. reinforces expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with ADP employment numbers significantly below forecasts [3]. - Morgan Stanley highlights that the Fed's decision on rate cuts will depend on the labor market's performance relative to inflation risks, suggesting a focus on cyclical sectors and commodities [3]. Group 2: Equity Market Insights - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the upward momentum in the Chinese stock market is sustainable, supported by low valuations and potential monetary policy adjustments from the central bank [5]. - CITIC Securities predicts an upward trend for gold prices, forecasting that gold could exceed $3730 per ounce by year-end due to various macroeconomic factors [6]. - Industrial sectors such as internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and new energy are expected to perform well in the current market environment [8]. Group 3: Industry Research - Morgan Asset Management maintains a positive outlook on Chinese equities, emphasizing "Artificial Intelligence+" as a key investment direction, supported by recent government policies [10]. - China Europe Fund anticipates a significant growth phase for domestic chip manufacturing, driven by advancements in technology and increased demand from major internet companies [13]. Group 4: Macroeconomic and Fixed Income Insights - Galaxy Securities notes that the shift towards new productivity drivers in China's economy will reshape the fixed income market, with a focus on tech-related bonds and REITs [17]. - Zhongtai Securities suggests that "anti-involution" policies may lead to higher interest rates over the long term, impacting inflation and growth dynamics [18]. - Bosera Fund indicates that monetary policy will remain accommodative, with potential adjustments based on domestic economic pressures and global monetary trends [19]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategies - Bosera Fund recommends a "barbell strategy" to navigate market uncertainties, suggesting that despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for A-shares remains positive [21].