热点思考 | 全面“遇冷”——美国8月非农数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for August significantly underperformed expectations, with only 22,000 jobs added compared to the forecast of 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising to a new high of 4.3% [1][6][8] - Employment conditions weakened across most industries, particularly in cyclical sectors, which saw a reduction of 48,000 jobs, a decline that expanded by 26,000 from the previous month [1][6][10] - The private sector added only 38,000 jobs in August, which is below the expected 75,000, indicating a broader trend of employment deterioration [1][6][10] Group 2 - The labor market is currently characterized by a fragile balance of supply and demand, with both sides showing weakness, leading to a potential upward trend in the unemployment rate [2][14][23] - The credibility of the August non-farm data is questioned due to a low response rate of 56.7%, the lowest in recent years, suggesting that future revisions may significantly alter the current figures [2][14][20] - The expected equilibrium level of job creation in the U.S. for the second half of the year is projected to be between 30,000 and 80,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate likely to continue rising if job creation remains stagnant [2][23][32] Group 3 - Following the release of the non-farm data, market sentiment shifted from "rate cut trading" to "recession trading," with expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September increasing to 11% [3][6][10] - The market anticipates two rate cuts by the end of the year, although this is contingent on the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% or higher, which is considered a low probability scenario [3][6][10] - The bond market reacted with a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield from approximately 4.16% to 4.06%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards a more cautious outlook [3][6][10]