“申”度解盘 | 九月：箱体上移、稳中求进

Group 1 - The expectation of a turning point in the profit growth rate of listed companies has increased, with A-share non-financial and "three barrels of oil" companies showing a rebound in net profit growth to 6.8% in Q1 2025, followed by a decline to 2.9% in Q2 2025, but maintaining positive growth due to decreasing base pressure from 2024 [5][10] - Domestic growth stabilization measures are being implemented, including policies like "anti-involution," infrastructure projects in the western regions, and childbirth subsidies, creating a dual focus on supply and demand [5][10] - The stock market is increasingly optimistic about the overall profit growth of listed companies potentially transitioning from negative to positive, which is a significant factor influencing the mid-term market trend [5][10] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's "neutral dovish" policy stance has significantly raised expectations for interest rate cuts in September, with implied probabilities for a cut rising from 72% to 94%, and the total number of cuts expected in 2026 increasing from 5.0 to 5.3 [6][13] - The rise in U.S. interest rate cut expectations has led to increased activity in global equity and commodity markets, marking it as a core influencing factor for market performance in September [6][13] Group 3 - The equity risk premium of the CSI 300 index was recorded at 5.61 at the end of August, significantly lower than the historical average, indicating a trend towards mean reversion [6][15] - The number of stocks in the market with gains exceeding 20% reached 789 in August 2025, a 76% increase from the previous month, marking the highest count for the year and reflecting a strong market characteristic [7][17] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a rapid upward trend after breaking through its previous trading range, overcoming key resistance levels from the last quarter of the previous year and 2021 [8][19] - The CSI 300 index has also broken through its previous high from the last quarter of the previous year, indicating a potential return to an upward trend, with long-term resistance levels possibly turning into support [8][22]