美国至少还有牛市，中国人养老靠什么？

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has increased by over 10% this year, with an average annual return of 15% over the past decade, while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 17% this year, surpassing 3800 points [2] - Historical data shows that the long-term average annual real return of the U.S. stock market since 1793 is 6.1%, but this varies significantly depending on the time frame considered [3] Retirement Planning Misconceptions - Many individuals mistakenly believe that investment returns will consistently be high and that expenses will naturally decrease after retirement, underestimating market volatility and overestimating their frugality [2][3] - Research indicates that actual spending for retirees often remains between 93%-97% of their pre-retirement expenses, contrary to common guidelines suggesting a reduction to 50%-70% [6][7] Savings Requirements - If the real return on investment is only 5% over the next 30 years, a worker would need to save 12% of their pre-tax income to maintain their retirement lifestyle, with higher savings rates required for lower returns [3][6] - The need for higher savings rates emphasizes the importance of consistent saving rather than relying solely on market performance [6] Retirement Spending Patterns - Retirement spending typically follows a "three-stage" curve: increased spending in the early retirement years, stable spending in mid-retirement, and rising medical expenses in later years [7] - The expectation that retirees will spend less is often a misconception, as healthcare costs can escalate significantly in older age [7] Policy Developments - China has introduced a personal pension system to supplement basic pension insurance, allowing individuals to open personal pension accounts with a maximum annual contribution of 12,000 RMB, which can be tax-deductible [8] - Despite the introduction of this system, actual contribution rates remain low, indicating a need for improved incentives and product attractiveness [8] Investment Philosophy - The article emphasizes that retirement savings should be based on prudent financial planning rather than speculative market behavior, advocating for a focus on saving and budgeting [8][9] - The current stock market performance does not guarantee a secure retirement, and individuals are encouraged to increase their savings rate to ensure financial stability in the future [9]