瑞银：美股9月多回调，但今年投资者无需恐惧！重申配置黄金

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has shown strong performance but typically experiences weakness in September, with UBS suggesting investors consider gradually increasing stock exposure during market pullbacks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - The S&P 500 index has risen nearly 30% since its low in April 2025, recently surpassing the 6500 mark before a slight pullback [1]. - Historically, September has been the worst month for the S&P 500, with an average return of approximately -2% over the past decade, and declines occurring in 6 out of the last 10 years [1]. - UBS forecasts the S&P 500 index to reach 6800 by the end of June 2026, indicating an upside potential of about 5% [1]. Group 2: Earnings Growth - 98% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 earnings, with 81% exceeding expectations [1]. - UBS predicts earnings per share for S&P 500 constituents to reach $270 in 2025 (an 8% year-over-year increase) and $290 in 2026 (a 7.5% increase) [1]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts - Recent inflation data shows easing price pressures, particularly in energy and commodities, leading to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [2]. - UBS anticipates the Fed will cut rates by a total of 100 basis points over the next four meetings, which is expected to support the stock market [2]. Group 4: Artificial Intelligence Trends - Major tech companies reported strong Q2 earnings, with cloud service revenues growing over 25% year-over-year [3]. - UBS has raised its global AI capital expenditure forecasts to $375 billion and $500 billion for the next two years, respectively [3]. - Expected earnings growth rates for the tech sector are projected at 15% in 2025 and 12.5% in 2026 [3]. Group 5: Market Outlook Post-September - Historically, October and November have shown positive average returns for the S&P 500, at 1.2% and 4%, respectively [4]. - Since 1960, the S&P 500 has averaged a 12% return in the year following a new high, with a 38% return over the next three years [4]. - UBS recommends underweight investors gradually increase their stock exposure, particularly in technology, healthcare, utilities, and financial sectors, as well as in high-dividend quality stocks in Europe and technology sectors in Asia [4]. Group 6: Gold Market Insights - Gold reached a historical high of $3508 per ounce on September 2, with a year-to-date increase of over 30% [5]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to expectations of the Fed restarting rate cuts, with a nearly 90% probability of a September rate cut [5]. - UBS forecasts global gold demand to grow by 3% to 4760 tons in 2025, the highest level since 2011, and suggests maintaining a moderate single-digit allocation to gold [6].