【广发宏观郭磊】8月出口与目前经济驱动结构

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability of China's export performance in August, highlighting the divergence in export markets and the differentiation in export products, while also addressing the implications of tariffs and economic policies on future trade dynamics [1][2][3]. Export Performance - In August, China's exports amounted to $321.81 billion, showing a slight increase from July's $321.78 billion. The month-on-month growth rate was 0.1%, which is considered normal given the high base in July. Year-on-year, exports grew by 4.4%, aligning with the two-year average growth rate [4][5]. - Exports to the U.S. weakened significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 33.1%, while exports to the EU and ASEAN showed positive growth rates of 10.4% and 22.5%, respectively. Notably, exports to Africa increased by 25.9% year-on-year, marking a structural highlight in the export landscape [6][7]. Product Differentiation - There is a clear differentiation in export products, with labor-intensive goods such as textiles and electronics experiencing declines of 7.7% and 8.1% year-on-year, respectively. In contrast, high-end equipment exports, including integrated circuits and automobiles, saw significant growth rates of 32.8% and 17.3% [7][9]. Tariff Impact and Future Outlook - The article notes that the recent suspension of tariffs by the U.S. and China may lead to a relatively stable trade environment in September and October. However, the fourth quarter may face challenges due to higher base effects and potential uncertainties regarding tariff policies [9][10]. - The import figures for August showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, which is lower than July's 4.1% but better than the previous months' declines. The article suggests that the import momentum remains weak, and a recovery may depend on future inventory replenishment by enterprises [10][11]. Economic Drivers - The current economic structure is driven by exports and new industries, while real estate and local infrastructure investments are under pressure. The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing domestic demand before November, when trade uncertainties may increase [11].