【招银研究】海外降息交易发酵，国内市场情绪起伏——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2025.09.08-09.12）

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy remains strong, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a Q3 growth rate of 3.0%, driven by stable consumer spending and enhanced investment momentum, particularly in technology [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, signaling a potential restart of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, expected to begin in September with a terminal rate around 3.5% [2][3] - Private sector financing costs are decreasing due to dovish expectations, which, combined with fiscal policy, may further strengthen the US economy [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Recent market movements show a decline in US Treasury yields and a strengthening of gold prices, with gold reaching historical highs amid a potential new easing cycle [3][5] - The dollar is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern between 95-103, influenced by the dual support of interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion [4] - The Chinese yuan is projected to remain strong in the short term, although potential fluctuations may arise from A-share market declines or adjustments in US rate cut expectations [4] Group 3: Chinese Economic Developments - The Chinese real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with major cities like Shenzhen easing purchase restrictions, leading to increased transaction volumes [7] - External demand remains weak, with the manufacturing PMI for new export orders at 47.2%, indicating continued contraction [8] - The People's Bank of China may resume purchasing government bonds if economic growth continues to slow, as indicated by recent discussions between the Ministry of Finance and the central bank [8] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Recent fluctuations in market sentiment have led to a slight decline in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% over the week [10][12] - The current market downturn is not driven by significant negative events, but rather by profit-taking and regulatory concerns regarding rapid market growth [12] - A rebound in the A-share market is anticipated after adjustments, supported by ongoing liquidity and the Federal Reserve's easing cycle [12] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies suggest holding dividend stocks as a stable base, with growth sectors like technology and healthcare as aggressive positions, and undervalued consumer stocks as supplementary investments [13] - The bond market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a slight rise in the 10-year government bond yield, while maintaining a focus on short-duration bonds [11]