丢失、遗忘或死亡，比特币比想象的更“稀缺”？

Core Viewpoint - The actual circulating supply of Bitcoin may be significantly lower than the capped limit of 21 million due to lost private keys, hardware failures, or unexpected deaths, with estimates suggesting that between 2.3 million to 7.8 million Bitcoins may be permanently out of circulation [1][8][11]. Group 1: Bitcoin Supply and Loss Estimates - The current circulating supply of Bitcoin is approximately 19.9 million, but the effective amount could be as low as 12.1 million to 17.6 million [2]. - Estimates from various sources indicate that between 2.3 million to 7.8 million Bitcoins are permanently lost, with a report from Ledger suggesting a loss of 2.3 million to 3.7 million, accounting for 11%-18% of the total supply [9][10]. - A study by Glassnode and ARK Invest estimates that around 7.8 million Bitcoins are in a "hoarded or lost" state, representing about 39% of the total supply as of September 2025 [10][11]. Group 2: The Nature of Bitcoin Ownership - Unlike traditional assets, Bitcoin cannot be "reissued" if lost; the phrase "Not your keys, not your coins" emphasizes the importance of private keys in Bitcoin ownership [5]. - Once a private key is lost, the corresponding Bitcoin becomes an inaccessible "ghost asset," with notable cases of individuals losing significant amounts due to forgotten passwords or accidental deletions [6][7]. Group 3: Market Implications of Bitcoin Scarcity - The combined holdings of Bitcoin ETFs and major corporations amount to approximately 2.2 million Bitcoins, which is less than the estimated number of permanently lost Bitcoins [13][14]. - The real market value of Bitcoin may be overestimated by about $500 billion, as the actual circulating supply could be as low as 8.9 million Bitcoins, representing only 45% of the mined total [15]. - This "silent deflation" caused by loss, forgetfulness, and death is reducing the actual supply of Bitcoin, which is not adequately reflected in mainstream financial media [15].