转口贸易重启——8月外贸数据解读【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Core Viewpoint - In August, China's export growth rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, a decline of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, with the month-on-month growth also below the median of the past five years, primarily due to a rebound in the base from the same period last year and weakened U.S. imports following tariff implementation [2][3]. Export Analysis - The decline in export growth is attributed to weakened U.S. imports due to tariffs and a rebound in the previous year's base, which has exerted pressure on exports [3]. - Exports to Southeast Asia have increased as a substitute for direct exports to the U.S., while exports to Europe have rebounded against a backdrop of a significant increase in the previous year's base [8]. - The electronic industry chain, particularly consumer electronics, has shown strong performance despite the overall decline in exports [12]. Import Analysis - In August, China's import growth rate was 1.3%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, with the month-on-month growth hitting a five-year low, mainly due to a halt in production-related imports and continued weak domestic demand [11]. - Imports from major trading partners, except for ASEAN and the U.S., have generally declined, with significant drops from resource countries and "Belt and Road" nations [11][14]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus expanded to $102.33 billion in August, indicating that net exports continue to support the economy [17]. - Future export outlook suggests potential improvement in September due to a low base, but a significant increase in the fourth quarter's base may lead to a stable yet declining export center [17].