这轮牛市能走多远？5大因素解析！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current bull market is driven by five key factors, which include valuation recovery, liquidity premium, external capital inflow, policy dividends, and fundamental recovery [5][6][24]. - Valuation recovery is identified as the starting point of the market rally, with the market experiencing a significant decline from 2021 to 2024, reaching historical lows in September 2024 [9][10][11]. - The liquidity premium is driven by declining interest rates, which have fallen from 3.88% in early 2018 to 1.60% by early 2025, leading to a shift in capital towards equity assets as traditional investment avenues like real estate weaken [12][14][15][17]. Group 2 - External capital inflow is influenced by the Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle starting September 2024, which is expected to lower rates further, making emerging markets like China more attractive for international investors [18][19][20]. - Policy dividends have been established through a series of regulatory measures aimed at improving market quality, such as reducing transaction taxes and encouraging dividends, which are expected to enhance long-term investment attributes [21][22][23]. - Fundamental recovery is crucial for the sustainability of the bull market, with signs of economic recovery and industry upgrades in sectors like hard technology, new energy, and pharmaceuticals, indicating potential for future growth [24][25][26][27]. Group 3 - The market outlook suggests that the current valuation level is around 60 degrees, nearing the end of the valuation recovery phase, with future performance relying more on earnings realization and market sentiment [28][29]. - Interest rates are at historical lows, and the ongoing low-rate environment is expected to continue driving capital reallocation towards equities [30]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic fundamentals, as the market is still in a recovery phase, and effective data validation is needed to support the ongoing bullish sentiment [32][33].