“抢出口”的认知误区——8月外贸数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The decline in exports in August is not primarily due to the "rush to export" effect but is influenced by high base effects and tariffs, while the month-on-month export growth remains stable and aligns with leading indicators [3][59]. Export Analysis - In August, exports (in USD) decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 4.4% year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was 0.1%, consistent with seasonal trends [3][59]. - Exports to developed economies fell by 3.8 percentage points to -8.1%, mainly due to a significant drop in exports to the US (-11.5 percentage points to -33%) reflecting the gradual impact of tariffs [10][59]. - Exports to the EU continued to rise (+1.2 percentage points to 10.5%), with improvements in specific products such as mobile phones (+2.9 percentage points to -18.9%) and automobiles maintaining high growth (17.3%) [10][59]. Emerging Markets and Industrialization - Despite the implementation of Vietnam's "transshipment tariffs," exports to emerging markets remain strong, driven by the accelerated industrialization of these economies and an increase in China's market share [4][60]. - In August, exports to ASEAN grew by 5.9 percentage points to 22.6%, largely due to the industrialization process in emerging economies [4][60]. - Notable increases in exports of production materials to emerging markets were observed, with shipbuilding and LCD panels growing by 36.5 percentage points and 12 percentage points, respectively [4][60]. Future Outlook - While tariffs and base effects may disrupt exports, there is still potential for increased imports from the US, and the improving demand from emerging economies alongside China's rising export share is expected to sustain overall export resilience [4][29][60]. - Leading indicators support this trend, with processing trade imports remaining stable and high in August (-2.5 percentage points to 5.4%), and early September port freight volumes still exceeding last year's levels [4][29][60]. Import Analysis - August imports (in USD) decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 1.3% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in bulk commodity imports [6][50]. - The import growth rate for mechanical and electrical products slightly fell (-1.7 percentage points to 1.0%), significantly impacted by a drop in automotive imports (-8.4 percentage points to -50.5%) [6][50]. - Specific commodities such as copper (-10.6 percentage points to 7.4%), soybeans (-17.3 percentage points to 1.1%), and crude oil (-10.7 percentage points to 0.8%) also showed declines, indicating a potential slowdown in domestic investment demand [6][50].