深度丨内卷还是外卷？——基于利润率的比较视角【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Core Viewpoints - The implementation of Trump's "transshipment tariffs" and the resumption of postal package taxation will lead to a renewed wave of Chinese enterprises going abroad [2] - The current state of various industries in China going abroad and the differences from direct exports are examined, along with the impact on profit margins [2][3] - East Asian enterprises are driven to go abroad due to rising factor costs and tightening internal and external environments, leading to a restructuring of industrial chains [2][6] Industry Outbound Trends - The outbound journey of East Asian enterprises is primarily driven by rising costs and stricter internal and external environments, prompting a shift from labor-intensive to technology-intensive and service industries [6][10] - Different regions have unique triggers and paths for going abroad, with South Korea focusing on steel and automotive industries, while Taiwan has shifted from chemicals to services [7][12] - The automotive and light industries have led the way in outbound revenue, while electronics and electrical machinery are transitioning from exports to outbound production [3][34] Profit Margin Impact - Overall, there is a positive correlation between Chinese enterprises going abroad and profit margins, with significant industry differences [4][50] - Industries such as light industry, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals see notable profit margin increases after going abroad, while electronics and textiles remain export-dependent [4][63] - The reasons for higher overseas profit margins include supply-demand gaps, brand premiums, and higher consumption levels [65][66] Policy and Market Dynamics - The past decade has seen a shift from "export-oriented" to "global operations" for Chinese enterprises, driven by supportive policies and market conditions [30][32] - The "Belt and Road" initiative has catalyzed outbound revenue growth, particularly in the automotive and light industries [32][33] - The impact of geopolitical risks has led to a cautious approach in the oil and petrochemical sectors, resulting in a decrease in overseas operations [48] Future Outlook - Industries such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, electrical machinery, and electronics are expected to see continued overseas profit growth [81] - The challenges faced by food and beverage, electronics, and textile industries in improving profitability due to localization barriers and international uncertainties are highlighted [81][78]