“抢出口”的认知误区——8月外贸数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The decline in exports in August is not primarily due to the "rush to export" effect but is influenced by high base effects and tariffs, while the month-on-month export growth remains stable and aligns with leading indicators [3][60]. Export and Import Data - In August, exports (in USD) decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 4.4% year-on-year, while month-on-month growth was 0.1%, consistent with seasonal trends [3][60]. - Import growth also fell, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.8 percentage points to 1.3%, primarily driven by a decline in bulk commodity imports [51][63]. Export Performance by Region - Exports to developed economies saw a significant decline, particularly to the US, which dropped by 11.5 percentage points to -33%, reflecting the gradual impact of tariffs [10][44]. - Conversely, exports to the EU increased by 1.2 percentage points to 10.5%, indicating a recovery in certain sectors [10][44]. Emerging Markets and Industrialization - Despite the implementation of Vietnam's "transshipment tariffs," exports to emerging markets remain strong, driven by the accelerated industrialization of these economies and an increase in China's market share [4][61]. - Exports to ASEAN countries grew by 5.9 percentage points to 22.6%, supported by rising demand for production materials [4][61]. Product-Specific Trends - Consumer electronics exports rebounded significantly, with a growth rate increase of 5.2 percentage points to 6.1%, particularly in LCD panel modules [62][35]. - In contrast, light industrial product exports declined by 6.6 percentage points to -8.0%, with notable decreases in footwear and apparel [62][35]. Future Outlook - While tariffs and base effects may disrupt exports, there is still potential for growth in US imports and improving demand from emerging economies, suggesting overall export resilience [29][61]. - Leading indicators support this trend, with stable processing trade imports and high port cargo volumes compared to the previous year [29][61].