旧方子治不了新病：美国关税与移民的政策困境

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the underlying economic concerns in the U.S. despite seemingly positive indicators such as a booming stock market and low unemployment rates. It argues that the reintroduction of tariffs and immigration policies as economic tools may lead to more harm than good, echoing historical precedents of limited effectiveness and significant side effects [2][3][4]. Tariffs - Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on various imports, including steel and aluminum, are intended to protect domestic manufacturing and increase local employment. However, economic consensus suggests that the costs of tariffs are largely passed on to consumers, with a mere 0.2% decrease in overall import prices by 2025 [1][2]. - Tariff revenues for the first eight months of the year amounted to approximately $146 billion, with new policies contributing $88 billion, which is only 0.3% of GDP. This revenue is insufficient to address the 5%-6% fiscal deficit, indicating that tariffs do not effectively mitigate budget shortfalls while simultaneously raising consumer prices [1][2]. Immigration Policies - The article discusses the potential decline in net immigration from approximately 1 million annually to as low as 200,000 by 2025 due to new policies. This reduction threatens the vitality of the U.S. labor market, particularly in sectors like agriculture, construction, and hospitality, which heavily rely on immigrant labor [2][3]. - Approximately 40% of farm workers are undocumented immigrants, and their removal could lead to immediate shortages in agricultural labor, contributing to rising food prices, as evidenced by the recent increase in fresh vegetable prices due to labor shortages [1][2]. Long-term Implications - The U.S. birth rate has fallen below 2, making it impossible to fill labor gaps solely through domestic population growth. A sustained decrease in immigration could lead to stagnation or decline in the labor force, ultimately destabilizing both consumption and production bases [3][4]. - The IMF predicts that prolonged low net immigration could reduce the potential GDP growth rate by 0.3-0.5 percentage points over the next decade, which, while seemingly minor, represents a significant loss of national economic strength when compounded over time [3][4]. Historical Context - Historical examples, such as the McKinley Tariff of 1890 and the Operation Wetback of 1954, illustrate that aggressive tariff and immigration policies may provide short-term relief but often result in long-term economic and political costs. These policies tend to be reversed when their negative consequences become apparent [4][5]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the U.S. economy's reliance on tariffs and immigration restrictions is akin to a factory that neglects innovation and efficiency improvements in favor of short-term fixes. This approach may sustain superficial economic activity but poses increasing risks for long-term growth and competitiveness [5].