陡峭化交易行情延续？双线资本：美联储降息将使2/10Y美债利差再扩大

Group 1 - Bill Campbell, the global sovereign debt portfolio manager at DoubleLine Capital, indicates that aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could steepen the U.S. yield curve further [1] - The current yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is approximately 58 basis points, up from 20 basis points at the end of February [1] - Campbell anticipates that this yield spread could increase by an additional 75 to 100 basis points, potentially matching the nearly 158 basis points seen in March 2021 [1] Group 2 - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to act quickly to support the labor market, with traders predicting nearly three rate cuts this year [3] - Over $3.4 trillion in U.S. Treasury debt will mature next year, with an average interest rate of 2.78%, significantly lower than current rates [3] - If the Treasury refinances this maturing debt at current 2-year rates, taxpayers could face over $25 billion in additional annual interest costs [3] Group 3 - Rising fiscal deficits and long-term funding costs are putting pressure on countries worldwide, with France and Japan facing significant challenges [4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Benset has discussed the goal of lowering the 10-year Treasury yield to facilitate easier access to mortgages and auto loans for the public [4] - Campbell notes that achieving a 3% yield on 10-year bonds is a challenging task [4]