理想可以完成25Q3交付指引下限

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the delivery guidance and performance of Li Auto for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting the challenges in meeting delivery targets and the implications for future performance [1][5][6]. Delivery Guidance and Performance - Li Auto's delivery guidance for Q3 2025 is set between 90,000 and 95,000 units, with July and August deliveries recorded at 30,731 and 28,529 units respectively [1]. - As of early September, Li Auto has delivered 6,100 units, indicating that the remaining weekly average deliveries need to be between 7,499 and 9,021 units to meet the lower and upper guidance limits respectively [1]. - Cumulative deliveries from January to August total 263,198 units, suggesting that if September meets the lower guidance, total deliveries for the first nine months would reach 293,938 units [1]. Historical Context and Challenges - Historically, Li Auto has only exceeded weekly deliveries of 13,000 units six times, with the highest two-week total being 28,020 units [4]. - The article notes that achieving a monthly average of 5.8 to 6.0 thousand units is essential for meeting the delivery guidance, which Li Auto may not be able to sustain in June 2025 [5]. - If Li Auto does not update its delivery guidance, it would mark the third instance in history where the company fails to meet quarterly delivery targets [5]. Recent Performance Metrics - For the weeks of May 26 to June 15, 2025, Li Auto's weekly deliveries were recorded at 12,020, 8,270, and 7,874 units respectively [2]. - A high estimate for the delivery volume from June 1 to June 15 suggests that the company would need to maintain a weekly average of 14,160 units for the remaining days to meet the June delivery guidance [3]. Conclusion - The analysis indicates that Li Auto faces significant challenges in meeting its delivery targets for Q3 2025, with historical performance metrics suggesting that achieving the necessary delivery volumes may be difficult [1][5][6].