摩根大通交易员：美联储“9月降息之日”就是“利多出尽”之时

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September may act as a brake on the current bull market in U.S. stocks, potentially leading to profit-taking by investors [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Sentiment - Despite the strong performance of the S&P 500 index, which has reached over 20 historical highs this year and rebounded more than 30% since April, the internal support for the bull market is weakening [2] - The upcoming month of September, historically the worst month for U.S. stocks, raises concerns about market direction [3] - The market is experiencing heightened anxiety among investors due to the impact of tariffs and recent weak employment data ahead of the anticipated rate cut [2][3] Group 2: Risks and Concerns - Concerns are raised about the potential for "good news to be fully priced in," as comments from public and private companies indicate more cost pass-throughs due to tariffs, with uncertain speed and scale [4] - The interest rate cut itself may introduce new inflationary pressures, as it could stimulate labor demand and lead to wage inflation, which is a concern for future market stability [5] - Historical data shows that September typically sees a range of factors that suppress market performance, including portfolio rebalancing by pension and mutual funds, reduced participation from retail investors, and decreased stock buybacks ahead of third-quarter earnings [6] Group 3: Historical Context and Strategies - Historical data indicates that when the Federal Reserve cuts rates during non-recession periods, September market performance can defy seasonal weakness, with the S&P 500 averaging a 1.2% increase in such years [7] - Different institutions propose strategies to navigate the current risks, with Morgan Stanley suggesting "buying the dip," while JPMorgan's trading team recommends hedging strategies and increasing exposure to gold to mitigate potential market volatility [8]