【笔记20250909— 债市“三杀”日记：股债“跷跷板”断了吗？】

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting significant movements in interest rates and the impact of large redemptions from index bond funds, alongside the potential cancellation of tax exemptions for funds, which has led to increased volatility in the market [3][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The funding environment has slightly tightened, with long-term bond yields rising significantly. The central bank conducted a 2.47 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 2.557 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 870 million yuan [3]. - The overnight funding rates have continued to rise, with DR001 around 1.42% and DR007 at approximately 1.48% [3]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - There was a notable sell-off in index bond funds, which has contributed to a bearish sentiment in the bond market. The bond market experienced three significant declines: a drop in the stock market leading to falling bond futures, large redemptions from bond funds, and rumors of the cancellation of fund tax exemptions [5][7]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.78% to 1.79%, with a peak at 1.80% before slightly retreating to 1.795% [5][7]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historical data indicates that when the 10-year government bond yield fell below 1.80% in March, it quickly rose to 1.90% within five trading days. The current yield is at a critical level, suggesting that if it holds above 1.80%, there may be opportunities for a short-term bullish trend; otherwise, the market may continue to trend bearish [7][8].