读研报 | 去美元中，黄金再创新高

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $3600 per ounce, is attributed to several short-term catalysts, including rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, increased pressure from President Trump on the Fed, and growing concerns over fiscal sustainability leading to a shift towards gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has boosted the performance of low-yield currencies and assets [2]. - President Trump's intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve has reinforced market expectations of a dovish policy stance, undermining the credibility of the dollar [2]. - Concerns over the sustainability of fiscal policies have led to accelerated selling of long-term bonds, increasing the appeal of gold as a safe financial asset [2]. Group 2: De-dollarization and Central Bank Behavior - The trend of de-dollarization is identified as a primary driver of gold price movements, with central banks increasingly purchasing gold as a substitute for dollar reserves [3][5]. - The proportion of global demand for gold from central bank purchases has risen from approximately 10% to 25% since 2020 [5]. - A significant majority of central banks (95%) expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, with 43% planning to add to their gold holdings [5]. Group 3: Long-term vs Short-term Investment Logic - The long-term logic regarding the impact of diminished dollar credibility on gold returns is widely accepted, but distinguishing between long-term trends and short-term variables is crucial for investment decisions [6].