数据背后，一个比肩楼市的红利出现了？

Core Insights - The article highlights the disparity between the increasing money supply (M2) and stagnant price levels, questioning why more money in circulation has not led to inflation or rising asset prices [1][3]. Group 1: Money Supply and Inflation - M2 balance reached 330.29 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating an increase in the money supply [1]. - CPI rose slightly to 0.1%, while PPI fell to -3.6%, suggesting persistent deflationary pressures despite the increase in money supply [1][3]. Group 2: Allocation of New Money - Approximately 30% of the new money has flowed to the government through bond financing, with some funds used for debt refinancing and infrastructure investments [4]. - About 60% of the new money has gone to enterprises, primarily for production expansion, leading to potential overproduction and price deflation [5]. Group 3: Capital Outflow and Currency Dynamics - Export companies are retaining foreign currency earnings overseas instead of converting them to RMB, which limits domestic liquidity and contributes to the lack of inflation [10][12]. - The trade surplus reached $586.7 billion in the first half of 2025, while foreign currency deposits hit a record high of $824.87 billion, indicating significant capital held abroad [7][8]. Group 4: Future Strategies for Capital Market - The article suggests that attracting capital back to the domestic market, particularly through the Hong Kong stock market, is crucial for reversing the current trends [11]. - The focus on enhancing the capital market's attractiveness is seen as a way to create a wealth effect and draw back funds that are currently invested overseas [11][13].