国泰海通｜宏观：转口贸易：会受影响吗——2025年8月贸易数据点评

Core Viewpoint - In August, China's export growth showed a slight decline due to a higher base and the tapering off of previous technical rush shipments, with a notable increase in re-export scale and sustained high levels of exports to non-US and non-re-export destinations [1][2]. Export Structure - The export momentum outlook indicates that regulatory measures on re-exports from certain ASEAN countries, such as Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, are a key market concern. These countries have implemented regulations focusing on local value content and substantial processing requirements since 2025 [2]. - The impact of re-export regulations is expected to be minimal. Even under the worst-case scenario, where both narrow and broad definitions of re-exports face a 40% tariff, the effect on China's export growth rate would only be a reduction of 2%. In reality, only 30-50% of the products exported to ASEAN can be classified as re-export demand, leading to a more realistic impact of 0.7-1.2% on export growth [2]. - The company maintains that the short-term export momentum will see a mild decline, but the medium to long-term resilience remains strong due to stable replacement demand from non-US and non-re-export destinations, low impact from re-export regulations, and robust capital goods exports [2]. Trade Data Insights - In August 2025, China's export growth rate in USD terms was 4.4%, down from 7.2% previously, while import growth was 1.3%, down from 4.1% [8]. - Month-on-month, August exports were flat compared to July, slightly below seasonal levels and significantly lower than the same period in 2024, indicating that high base effects are dragging down year-on-year export growth [8]. - The trade surplus has rebounded, with a structural shift observed: exports to the US are slowing while those to ASEAN are increasing, reflecting an expansion in re-export activities. Conversely, exports to Latin America have decreased due to the cooling of technical rush shipments and the impact of new tariffs [8].