关税战下，中国出口为何依然坚挺？（国金宏观孙永乐）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the ongoing trade tensions initiated by the United States on global trade dynamics, highlighting the opportunities and challenges faced by emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa, while noting the decline in China's export share to the U.S. [3][21] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The U.S. remains the largest consumer market globally, and ASEAN countries are expected to benefit from the trade tensions due to their relatively lower tariff rates and stronger production capabilities [3]. - By July 2025, China's share of imports to the U.S. is projected to decrease by 4.4 percentage points to 9%, while ASEAN's share is expected to increase by 3.2 percentage points to 14% [3]. - Despite a significant decline in U.S. import demand since April, imports from ASEAN have maintained a growth rate of around 30% [3]. Group 2: ASEAN Export Growth - ASEAN's increase in U.S. import share is primarily driven by labor-intensive goods such as toys, footwear, and furniture, as well as electrical machinery and mechanical equipment [4]. - In the first half of 2024, ASEAN exported 25.5% of the world's footwear, 16.7% of electrical machinery products, and 12.6% of textile and apparel products [4]. - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with foreign direct investment reaching approximately $15.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [4]. Group 3: China's Export Strategy - Although China has lost some export share to the U.S., it has maintained high growth in exports to ASEAN, with a 12% year-on-year increase in exports to ASEAN in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The export growth to ASEAN is supported by intermediate and capital goods, which contributed significantly to the overall export growth [5]. - China's exports to Africa are becoming more diversified, with significant growth in machinery, vehicles, and electrical equipment [13]. Group 4: Africa's Economic Potential - Africa, with a population of 1.48 billion and a high proportion of young people, presents significant potential for Chinese exports [12]. - By 2024, China is expected to account for 23.1% of Africa's imports, an increase of 6.2 percentage points since 2019 [12]. - The economic growth forecast for Africa is 3.9% in 2025, driven by its rich natural resources and demographic advantages [12]. Group 5: Overall Trade Impact - Emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa are the main beneficiaries of the current trade tensions, with their shares in U.S. imports increasing [21]. - In contrast, regions like Japan, South Korea, and Europe may face greater pressure due to declining shares in the U.S. market [21]. - In the first half of 2024, China's export share to major sample regions increased by 0.1 percentage points, while ASEAN's share rose by 0.5 percentage points, primarily at the expense of Europe and Japan [21].