中金 | 反内卷vs市场化出清：光伏行业反内卷进入关键观察节点

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry has experienced a relief in operational pressure due to the installation rush in the first half of the year and price stabilization in the third quarter, but debt pressure remains significant, and the supply-demand relationship has not improved markedly, necessitating the need for "anti-involution" measures [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the photovoltaic main material sector achieved operating revenue of 162.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.1%, driven by the installation rush [5]. - The average gross margin for the main material sector in Q2 2025 was 2.9%, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating a significant decline in profitability due to price declines and intensified competition [7]. - Operating cash flow for the main material sector turned positive in Q2 2025, reaching 14.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 166.9% [12]. Debt and Cash Flow - The financing ability of second-tier companies has weakened significantly, with Q2 2025 financing activities turning negative as debt repayments exceeded new borrowings [15][22]. - The cash and equivalents of second-tier companies were approximately 28 billion yuan, while short-term borrowings were 32.4 billion yuan, indicating potential liquidity risks if debts cannot be refinanced [22]. Anti-Involution Measures - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have proposed measures to combat below-cost sales and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, with a target to reduce silicon material capacity to 2.3 million tons [2][24]. - The core paths for anti-involution are price guidance (preventing below-cost sales) and capacity consolidation (industry regulation) [25][26]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry requires a component price of 0.85 yuan/W to achieve overall profitability across the supply chain, indicating the need for price increases in various segments [43][44]. - The market has shown a divergence between futures and stock prices, reflecting strong expectations versus weak realities, with a need to monitor the implementation of anti-involution policies [37][42]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see further recovery in operating cash flow in Q3 2025, with the potential for significant alleviation of operating losses [15]. - The upcoming months are critical for observing the implementation of anti-involution policies, with the photovoltaic sector showing potential for further performance improvement [48][52].